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Thursday, February 11, 2010

22 Bahman Analysis

Right now I know from the outside it looks like the 22 Bahman efforts were unsuccessful. Compared to the Iranian hardliners ability to hold a rally with Ahmadinejad giving a speech, it looks like hardliners have gotten their way for today. We are down, but not defeated. What we need to do is to analyze and see what went wrong and learn lessons for next time.

What we can do is to start learning their tricks from the night before. In hindsight, we should have noticed that since they were blocking the city from the night before, that they were planning to create a virtual blockade and not permit the green people to demonstrate. Since they have to bring their resources from all over the country, it takes them awhile to get everything together. Also, we have to remember, the hardliners also have to maintain their "demonstrators", since they are mercenaries and need their food, water and prize for doing their bidding. These should be to the Green people's advantage. We let them build their human fence, and then expected to be able to penetrate in broad daylight.

So in my opinion how could this have been countered?

Disabling their ability to build the fence from prior to the time of demonstration. To stop the blockade, it should have been encountered from the night before while they were trying to build their Basiji-fence. Trying to tear down the wall afterwards, was difficult.

working to disable the basiji's ability to assemble

They didn't win, they just pulled an illusion. They blocked off a small area, filled their area with a small amount of people, and then filmed it. Remember, they are a master of illusions and photoshop.

Besides all of that, how can their demonstrations be a win, if they needed to have a military-esque atmosphere to hold it together? Does the photo above look like the hardliner's had a successful demonstration because they were the majority, or because they brought in armed forces?

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